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Friday, May 07, 2010

Mid-Term Prospects "Highly Susceptible to Change"

Public Policy Polling:
Republicans are in a position right now to win a lot of competitive Senate seats, but it sure isn't because voters are enamored with their candidates. Among ten potential new GOP Senators we've polled on so far in 2010:
-- None has a favorability rating higher than 34% (Kelly Ayotte)
-- 6 out of 10 are seen unfavorably by more voters in their state than favorably
-- Two have net favorability ratios of -10 or worse (Jane Norton and Roy Blunt)
-- The average favorability for the 10 is 26%, while the average unfavorability is 28%.


The[se Republicans] are definitely doing well because of the political climate rather than their own strength as candidates and that makes their positions highly susceptible to change if there's any sort of shift in public attitudes over the next six months.

Continued higher than expected (though of course still awful) job growth numbers getting flogged in the media? Democrats tapping into righteous populist anger through financial reform fights with obstructionist Republicans (needless to say, such rhetoric is scarcely matched by action, but the optics remain more congenial for Democrats)? Immigration reform dividing Republicans and bringing their ugliest racists out onto the tee vee? Continued Republican clown college statements about annulling literally everything in the Constitution but the Second Amendment alienating sane independents? It's a high-stakes down-to-the-wire nail-biter, but the beltway conventional wisdom about Dempocalypse 2010 may put another check in the village punditocracy's "always wrong about everything" column after all this November.

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