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Wednesday, January 06, 2010

I See in Democratic Retirements A Different Story Than the One GOPers Are Spinning

Republicans like to spin a good yarn (emphasis on the spin), no doubt about it. And I can't say I'm surprised that they are hyperventilating about the recent "wave" of Democratic retirements. But I have to think that at least some of the more reality-based operatives in the GOP -- assuming they haven't all been purged by now -- are feeling far from rosy about these developments.

In the House there are an average of sixteen retirements every couple of years, and at twelve so far we'll remain below that average even if we get a couple more. Certainly we are far from the twenty-eight retirements in 1994 that set up the wave Republicans keep evoking to frame our present situation. I must say the differences so far are so stark it makes these efforts at hard-selling the storyline look rather more desperate than worrisome. It would take far more retirements and far worse poll numbers to get me worried about losing the House. Which isn't to deny that could happen, but it simply doesn't look like reality as far as I can see.

Of course the Senate is another story. I do expect that Democrats will lose their so-called "filibuster proof" supermajority this November. Possibly not, by the way, but I expect they will. But since the current literally unprecedented irresponsible monolithic Republican and selective Conservadem obstructionism ensures that this majority is completely phony in terms of actual governance even though it remains a stick to beat Democrats with (oh, how incompetent Dems must be not to get anything done because in the face of our relentless anti-governmental misbehavior!) I can't say that this is a loss that is entirely without a silver lining, especially if one thinks about how to frame a more substantial Democratic presence in the Senate via the 2012 Presidential campaign in which conditions are far more favorable to Dems than they are for 2010.

I was truly surprised and distressed to hear of Dorgan's retirement. But I frankly felt relief rather than gloom to hear of Dodd's retirement later that same day (and not because I think Dodd is anything like the worst Senator around, in fact I think he has been a pretty good Senator all things considered -- the odious Lieberman is the other Senator of Dodd's State, after all), since it means that the seat Dorgan's retirement likely loses us is compensated by the seat we are likely to keep because of Dodd's retirement. If only the awful Blanche Lincoln would retire from her imperiled perch to give us a chance at keeping her seat with a more electable candidate as Dodd has done!

On a separate note, I know there is a lot of speculation that Dorgan's retirement expresses disgruntlement over his drug re-importation amendment going down in flames due to Obama's pre-emptive Pharma deal. I have a feeling drug re-importation will re-appear as a separate measure after Obama signs healthcare reform. That would be both a real crowd pleaser and a gift to the Base (not to mention being good policy) coming in to mid-terms -- that, plus a sense of a jobs turnaround are crucial by November if you ask me -- and Dorgan was making noises earlier today that he considers re-importation to be achievable before his retirement. Dorgan may indeed feel disgruntled about the debased state of the Senate, but I just don't think the setback on drug re-importation is anything like the whole story.

2 comments:

meat olaf said...

"I have a feeling drug re-importation will re-appear as a separate measure after Obama signs healthcare reform."

Whence comes this "feeling"?

I tend to agree with you that modifications of the current Senate bill sold as minor fixes after adoption (assuming the ineffectual House gets that version rammed down their throats basically as-is) would probably be more conducive to progressive interests and Dem seat retention than simply rejecting the bill as is, but I simply fail to see where anyone could find any evidence for the hope that any such fixes would actually happen in the world we inhabit.

Given the howling that would inevitably result from the very same "centrist" "Dems" and obstructionist repugs that have gifted us this shit sandwich, I can in no way fathom why ORahma would not get the fuck outta HCR-Dodge as soon as the 60th vote was tallied.

The Senate bill is gift to the base, or at least that's what they'll sell it as.

Dale Carrico said...

On Randi Rhodes today Dorgan said that not only was he not retiring because of the scuppering of Drug Re-Importation but that he was going to be in office a full year during which he fully intended to revisit this issue and with the expectation of success. (Regrettably I cannot find a transcript but I'm sure there's an .mp3 somewhere.) You may dismiss this as happy-talk or making nicey-nice, but it did feel that way to me, and I see little evidence that Dorgan is playing it that way in general here. Also, though I daresay this is easily dismissed as Mouseketeer Roll-Call Charlie Brown running to kick Lucy's football stuff on my part -- I love it how half the time I'm derided as Captain Bringdown and the other half I'm derided as the Happy Hippy -- the fact is that Axelrod among other Obama Administration figures have actually indicated that they do mean to revisit the issue themselves as for example here. The fact is that I think Obama made this a campaign promise because he believed it, and he took it off the table because he figured he had to do so in order to have a chance to succeed in any kind of healthcare reform unlike the seven Presidents who have preceded him in this ambition and especially given the current structural contraints of the Senate. I don't agree that revisiting this notion would be going back on the deal with Pharma, nor that this deal followed by a revisitation sequel would properly be regarded as breaking his campaign promise. I also disagree that it is quite so hard to circumvent obstructionism by Republican-empowered Conservadems on a straight-sell of drug importation (it's more competition! it'll lower costs for seniors!) than when it's bundled together with a bazillion other provisions as in healthcare reform more generally. That is to say, it is easier to sell a good squirt of mustard you can put on your shit sandwich than it is to sell a shit sandwich with mustard on it. I am far from saying this is a sure thing -- but Obama needs to give his Base some happy pills and he shows every sign of knowing it. This looks like a good path for many reasons.