Thursday, December 31, 2015

I Predict!


I predict that in 2016 futurists will continue to be predictable.

8 comments:

  1. > I Predict!

    Never fear, when Donald Trump is elected in 2016,
    he is certain to usher in the Singularity. So let
    it be written. So let it be done!

    The Average Person Can't Grasp Donald Trump
    Red Pill Philosophy
    Published on Sep 12, 2015
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bfcq6cLSSis
    ------------
    A lot of times Donald Trump. . . when asked "How are
    you going to build a wall?" or "How are you going to get
    Mexico to pay for this?" or "How are you going to create
    jobs?". . . [he'll answer] "I just am. I'm just going
    to do it." And they ask "How?" "It'll get done. You'll
    see." I think a lot of people don't understand that some
    of the wealthiest people, the movers and shakers in our
    society, they live by a different set of rules that have
    allowed them to achieve the success and influence. . .
    People who go through the mainstream school system,
    which is supposedly designed to prepare you to be
    successful, the mainstream school system doesn't teach
    the qualities that billionaires live by. The things
    that made billionaires billionaries, the things that
    made famous musicians and actors. . . they didn't use
    what they learned in school, what most of us learned
    in school. They live by a completely different set of
    principles and standards. In school you're taught, obey.
    Do what you're told. Be like everybody else. Conform.
    Wear your school uniform. Complete obedience and
    subservience to authority. These principles are the
    antithesis of what make you rich and influential in
    society. So when Donald Trump says "I'm just going to
    do it." people don't grasp that because it's just so
    contrary to their brainwashing of "Do what you're told
    and wait for somebody else to do it." The truth is
    that confidence and a sense of self-certainty are probably
    [among] the most important principles in all of life
    in accomplishing anything, whether it's making a ton of
    money or even being incredibly smart and coming up with
    a new intellectual paradigm. . . If you read one of
    the most famous self-help books, called _Think and Grow
    Rich_, the author interviewed some of the most influential
    and successful people of the 20th century. And he came
    to the conclusion that the qualities in these people
    that made them so successful were. . . a lot of time
    just confidence and belief in your project. . .
    Not the kind of stuff that the average person is fed
    through the mainstream school system and mainstream
    culture and upbringing. So when Donald Trump says
    "I'm just going to do it." he's referring to principles
    that aren't taught in mainstream schools.
    ====

    ReplyDelete
  2. > [W]hen Donald Trump is elected in 2016,
    > he is certain to usher in the Singularity.

    Cf:

    http://lesswrong.com/lw/ub/competent_elites/
    Eliezer_Yudkowsky
    27 September 2008
    ------------
    I remember what a shock it was to first meet Steve Jurvetson,
    of the venture capital firm Draper Fisher Jurvetson. . .

    Steve Jurvetson talked fast and articulately, could follow
    long chains of reasoning, was familiar with a wide variety of
    technologies, and was happy to drag in analogies from outside
    sciences like biology—good ones, too. . .

    I was shocked, meeting Steve Jurvetson, because from everything
    I'd read about venture capitalists before then, VCs were
    supposed to be fools in business suits, who couldn't understand
    technology or engineers or the needs of a fragile young startup,
    but who'd gotten ahold of large amounts of money by dint of
    seeming reliable to other business suits.

    One of the major surprises I received when I moved out of childhood
    into the real world, was the degree to which the world is
    stratified by **genuine** competence. . .

    I was invited once to a gathering of the mid-level power elite,
    where around half the attendees were "CEO of something" --
    mostly technology companies, but occasionally "something" was
    a public company or a sizable hedge fund. I was expecting
    to be the youngest person there, but it turned out that my
    age wasn't unusual—there were several accomplished individuals
    who were younger. This was the point at which I realized
    that my child prodigy license had officially completely expired. . .

    [T]hese people of the Power Elite were **visibly much smarter
    than average mortals**. In conversation they spoke quickly,
    sensibly, and by and large intelligently. When talk turned to
    deep and difficult topics, they understood faster, made fewer
    mistakes, were readier to adopt others' suggestions.

    No, even worse than that, much worse than that: these CEOs and
    CTOs and hedge-fund traders, these folk of the mid-level
    power elite, seemed **happier** and **more alive**.

    This, I suspect, is one of those truths so horrible that
    you can't talk about it in public. This is something that
    reporters must not write about, when they visit gatherings
    of the power elite. . .

    Hedge-fund people sparkle with extra life force. At least
    the ones I've talked to. Large amounts of money seem to
    attract smart people. No, **really**. . .

    [Y]ou really do find a lot more cream as you move closer
    to the top. . .
    ====

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  3. So when Donald Trump says "I'm just going to do it." he's referring to principles that aren't taught in mainstream schools.

    It's called bullshitting.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Eliezer Yudkowsky, supergenius, ethical exemplar, robocultic guru, ladies and gentlemen is unafraid of the hard truths of plutocratic elitism. Let's have that last bit again, shall we?

    "CEOs and CTOs and hedge-fund traders, these folk of the mid-level
    power elite, seemed happier and more alive. This, I suspect, is one of those truths so horrible that you can't talk about it in public. This is something that reporters must not write about, when they visit gatherings of the power elite... Hedge-fund people sparkle with extra life force. At least the ones I've talked to. Large amounts of money seem to attract smart people. No, really... [Y]ou really do find a lot more cream as you move closer to the top..."

    Has he recanted or qualified ANY of this truly ugly, evil, crazy crapola in the years since he said this?

    ReplyDelete
  5. > Has he recanted or qualified ANY of this truly ugly, evil,
    > crazy crapola in the years since he said this?

    Nope. And, as an earthy Brit might say, "not bloody likely". ;->

    That post is still widely mentioned. Speaking of which, a Tumblr
    post referencing it:
    http://nostalgebraist.tumblr.com/post/135482591189/youzicha-nostalgebraist-reddragdiva
    led me to this vignette:

    http://keithhennessey.com/2013/04/24/smarter/
    ------------
    George W. Bush is smarter than you
    Keith Hennessey

    . . .

    This seems like a good time to bust a longstanding myth about
    our former President, my former boss.

    I teach a class at Stanford Business School titled “Financial Crises
    in the U.S. and Europe.” During one class session while explaining
    the events of September 2008. . . [o]ne of my students asked
    “How involved was President Bush with what was going on?” I
    smiled and responded, “What you really mean is, ‘Was President Bush
    smart enough to understand what was going on,’ right?” . . .

    I looked hard at the 60 MBA students and said “President Bush
    is smarter than almost every one of you.” . . . [T]hen I
    launched into a longer answer. . . :

    I am not kidding. You are quite an intelligent group. Don’t take
    it personally, but President Bush is smarter than almost every
    one of you. . .

    President Bush is extremely smart by any traditional standard.
    He’s highly analytical and was incredibly quick to be able to
    discern the core question he needed to answer. It was occasionally
    a little embarrassing when he would jump ahead of one of his
    Cabinet secretaries in a policy discussion and the advisor would
    struggle to catch up. He would sometimes force us to accelerate
    through policy presentations because he so quickly grasped what
    we were presenting. . .

    Every meeting was a dialogue, and you had to be ready at all
    times to be grilled by him and to defend both your analysis and
    your recommendation. That was scary. . .

    You think that me cold-calling you is nerve-wracking? Try defending
    a sentence you inserted into a draft speech, with President Bush
    pouncing on the slightest weakness in your argument or your word choice.

    In addition to his analytical speed, what most impressed me were
    his memory and his substantive breadth. We would sometimes have to
    brief him on an issue that we had last discussed with him weeks
    or even months before. He would remember small facts and arguments
    from the prior briefing and get impatient with us when we were
    rehashing things we had told him long ago. . .

    I only had to worry about economic issues. In addition to all of
    those, at any given point in time he was making enormous decisions
    on Iraq and Afghanistan, on hunting al Qaeda and keeping America
    safe. He was making choices not just on taxes and spending and
    trade and energy and climate and health care and agriculture and
    Social Security and Medicare, but also on education and immigration,
    on crime and justice issues, on environmental policy and
    social policy and politics. Being able to handle such substantive
    breadth and depth, on such huge decisions, in parallel, requires
    not just enormous strength of character but tremendous
    intellectual power. President Bush has both. . .
    ====

    Now doesn't that make you feel all warm and fuzzy?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Predictably, just like that "Facts" From A Hundred Years Back list gets updated by subtracting 100 from the current year (http://factually.gizmodo.com/this-viral-list-about-1915-is-full-of-lies-1750330886), "futurists" will update their same old ad copy by adding 20, 30 or 40 to the current year.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I predict that this year we will get another shitty phone that are not that different from the other phones for the past 4 years. I will be more accurate than Ray Kurzweil in my prediction.

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  8. I wonder if Kurzweil will ever publish the only prediction his conduct reveals he truly believes: There's a sucker born every minute.

    ReplyDelete