Sunday, October 17, 2010

Futurological Scientism and Pseudo-Science As Anti-Science Ideology and Theology

Contrary to their endlessly reiterated self-promotional declarations to the contrary, so many of these software industry drones pretending to be expert physicists and geneticists and nanotechnologists as well as corporate-militarist yes-men pretending to be bioethicists and think-tank futurists clearly are not joining the various sects of the Robot Cult because they want to do serious science or engage in serious policy deliberation.

I am reminded of those finger-wagging statements circulated occasionally by think-tanks and advocacy organizations stealthfully funded by petrochemical interests and loudly boasting the signatures of thousands of "scientists" to create the impression that the actually overwhelming scientific consensus concerning the urgent threat of catastrophic anthropogenic climate change is instead a left-wing conspiracy, but in which almost none of the signatories are scientists in fields the least bit relevant to the factual evaluation of the claims they are contesting (and for palpably ideological and not scientific reasons at that), if they are proper scientists at all. In such schemes the status and force of science is doubly looted and diluted: first, there is the specific undermining of an actually warranted consensus scientific belief, and an almost unprecedentedly urgent one at that, by scientists willing to conduct themselves unscientifically; and second, there is the general undermining of the force of warranted consensus scientific beliefs as such, however indispensable they may be to the administration of actually functional secular democratic societies, by actors irresponsibly willing to eschew long-term and general welfare for parochial, short-term, even minute momentary tactical advantages and gains. All this, in the service of extractive-industrial incumbent-elite profit-taking.

So, too, whatever its insistent but superficial scientificity, the substance and primary work of superlative futurology remains, as it always has been primarily:
one -- either ideological, consisting in prophetic utterances in the form of hyperbolic threat/profit assessments and marketing/promotional discourse wrapped in superficially technoscientific terminology providing incumbent-elite corporate-industrial interests rationales to justify continued profit-taking at the expense of majorities

two -- or theological, consisting in priestly utterances in the form of apocalyptic warnings of looming total catastrophes but also promises to the faithful of a techno-transcendence of mortality via super-longevity, error and humiliation via super-intelligence, and stress and worldly defeat via super-abundance providing both reassurance and consolation especially in the midst of the economic and ecologic distress of neoliberal-neoconservative technodevelopmental planetary precarization.

And, again, it is not just the reactionary political outcomes facilitated by their phony genuflections to scientificity that should be decried, but the deeper damage to the wholesome social force of science, properly so-called and in its proper precinct, that should worry critics of futurological (reductive) scientism and (hyperbolic) pseudo-science.

From half a decade ago, the post Is Science Democratic? provides some nice context.

7 comments:

  1. Speaking of "consensus science", a leading light of >Hism
    wrote, on the Extropians' list in April 2004
    ( http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/2004-April/005930.html )

    "These are extraordinarily different things[:]
    The practice of science is a social process.
    The consensus of science is an opinion poll.

    The actual working part of science is Bayesian probability theory, which
    individual scientists and their social dynamics partially and imperfectly
    mirror. . . .

    Science intrinsically requires individual researchers setting their
    judgment above that of the scientific community. The social process of
    science encourages people to do the work and recognizes when they have
    done the work. The social process is not an actual human brain, has not
    the power of intelligence. If individuals do not have novel opinions and,
    yes, disagreements, for the scientific process to recognize as correct,
    there is no science. . . .

    The overall rationality of academia is simply not good enough to handle
    some necessary problems, as the case of Drexler illustrates. Individual
    humans routinely do better than the academic consensus. . . .

    Yes, the Way of rationality is difficult to follow. As illustrated by the
    difficulty that academia encounters in following [it]. The social process of
    science has too many known flaws for me to accept it as my upper bound.
    Academia is simply not that impressive, and is routinely beaten by
    individual scientists who learn to examine the evidence supporting the
    consensus, apply simple filters to distinguish conclusive experimental
    support from herd behavior. Robyn Dawes is among the scientists who have
    helped document the pervasiveness of plausible-sounding consensuses that
    directly contradict the available experimental evidence. Richard Feynman
    correctly dismissed psychoanalysis, despite the consensus, because he
    looked and lo, there was no supporting evidence whatsoever. Feynman tells
    of how embarassing lessons taught him to do this on individual issues of
    physics as well, look up the original experiments and make sure the
    consensus was well-supported.

    Given the lessons of history, you should sit up and pay attention if Chris
    Phoenix says that distinguished but elderly scientists are making blanket
    pronunciations of impossibility *without doing any math*, and without
    paying any attention to the math, in a case where math has been done. If
    you advocate a blanket acceptance of consensus so blind that I cannot even
    apply this simple filter - I'm sorry, I just can't see it. It seems I
    must accept the sky is green, if Richard Smalley says so.

    I can do better than that, and so can you."

    ReplyDelete
  2. The above was written in response to an expression of more
    conventional reservations about the rejection, by another poster,
    of science as a "social process". (Yes, there are occasionally
    sensible voices heard in >Hist circles, but they are in the minority,
    I'm afraid. But this is one of them.)


    http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/2004-April/005888.html

    > I've gone through a crisis of faith with regard to scientists recently.
    > In many areas, I've come to realize, scientists are far too
    > self-assured. They think they're practicing science, when in fact they
    > are merely contributing to science. A lone scientist can run
    > experiments, observe, make hypotheses, form opinions... but cannot fully
    > practice science, because science can only emerge from interactive
    > criticism. We are all too fallible to trust ourselves to generate good
    > science without lots of help.
    > ...
    > So how can science be reported to the real world? If one scientist's
    > opinion isn't trustworthy, what about lots of opinions together?
    > Michael Crichton has called this "consensus science," and correctly
    > attacked it. It's no more than a popularity contest for ideas, and the
    > popularity of an idea has little to do with its truth.

    This is a dangerous road to take. I'd be concerned that if I started
    off doubting the practice of science as a guide to truth, I might as
    well send in for my membership card in the Flat Earth Society, because
    that's where I'd end up.

    You complain above that individually, scientists can't practice science
    because that requires interactive criticism. But in fact, most individual
    scientists do work in a framework of interaction. Most scientists
    that I've known are actually very cautious about criticism, and do
    their utmost to make their presentations and publications bulletproof.
    They'll go out of their way to mention any weaknesses or ambiguities
    in their theories specifically in order to pre-empt their critics from
    raising those points. Science is a sport where defense counts more than
    offense, from my observations.

    And then you go on and criticize consensus science as being no more
    than a popularity contest. But this again overlooks the tremendous
    importance of criticism in the scientific process. A scientifically
    unsound theory, even if popular, cannot withstand criticism for long.
    There is too much temptation to jump onto the critical side once people
    see that it is going to win. Science rewards successful critics,
    and this self correcting mechanism is part of what has made science so
    successful as an institution.

    The real problem with abandoning science is that you will have no guide
    to truth in our complex world. No one can become familiar with all of
    the technical details relevant to the issues we face. By abandoning
    science you are explicitly turning away from the people who have spent
    their entire lives acquiring expertise in these areas.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Do you really think you are better able to weigh the many complexities
    around, say, global warming than those who have devoted their careers to
    studying the atmosphere and climate? Or similarly with other questions
    like the safety of genetically engineered plants? Or even, yes, the
    feasibility of nanotech?

    I have an extreme belief in the importance of being open minded.
    I've written at length about the dangers I see in ideologies, the way
    they blind us and control our thoughts. I've been strongly influenced by
    the results that Robin Hanson has reported and extended about the ways
    we fool ourselves, how we don't really seek the truth even though we
    think we do. I believe in seeking the truth. To the extent that I have
    an ideology, that's it. I try to look for those mechanisms in my mind
    that are operating to push me off the path to truth, and to compensate
    for them as well as I can.

    One of the principles I follow is that if I believe something that
    mainstream science disagrees with, I am probably wrong. It's for the
    reasons given above. I'm not smarter than those guys, at least not
    the smartest ones of them. And their expertise in these areas is far
    deeper than my own. Plus they have this incredibly complex and elaborate
    process of modelling and testing and subjecting each others results to
    intense criticism, while my uninformed notions on those topics undergo
    no such rigorous trials.

    The lesson I learned from Robin is that if I disagree with someone
    else, it's an accident of history which position I ended up with.
    I could have just as easily been in his shoes. Hence I should have
    no presumption that I am probably right, when there is a disagreement.
    Given this perspective, when I am going up against a scientific consensus,
    the odds are overwhelming that the scientists are right and I am wrong.

    It looks to me like these attitudes are the only appropriate ones to adopt
    for someone who sincerely seeks the truth. We have to try to discard
    or at least overcome our prejudices and egotistical belief in personal
    correctness and superiority. We have to be willing to change our minds
    when we come up against a situation where the experts disagree with us.

    Without the guidance of the best advice and analysis available on a
    subject, I would be concerned about being vulnerable to all kinds of
    quackery and fraud. We have many crazy beliefs right on this list.
    Some here refuse to accept the reality of global warming. Some believe in
    psychic powers. Some reject the link between HIV and AIDS. Some believe
    the universe is packed full of intelligent life. Some believe that Israel
    caused the 9/11 attacks. Some believe in cold fusion. And that's not
    even mentioning the whole complex of beliefs about the Singularity.

    Rejecting science means rejecting the best and most successful institution
    mankind has ever developed for finding out the truth about the world.
    It puts you onto a dangerous path fraught with tempting falsehoods that
    can lead you astray. As I suggested above, you better set aside money
    for your membership in the Crackpot League, because that's where this
    road ends.

    Hal Finney

    ReplyDelete
  4. A couple more relevant quotes:

    "[My] publisher said of somebody, 'That man will get on; he believes
    in himself.' And I remember that as I lifted my head to listen, my
    eye caught an omnibus on which was written 'Hanwell.' I said
    to him, 'Shall I tell you where the men are who believe most in
    themselves? For I can tell you. I know of men who believe in
    themselves more colossally than Napoleon or Caesar. I know
    where flames the fixed star of certainty and success. I can guide
    you to the thrones of the Super-men. The men who really
    believe in themselves are all in lunatic asylums.' He said mildly
    that there were a good many men after all who believed in
    themselves and who were not in lunatic asylums. 'Yes, there are,'
    I retorted, 'and you of all men ought to know them. That
    drunken poet from whom you would not take a dreary tragedy,
    he believed in himself. That elderly minister with an epic from
    whom you were hiding in a back room, he believed in himself.
    If you consulted your business experience instead of your
    ugly individualistic philosophy, you would know that believing
    in himself is one of the commonest signs of a rotter. Actors
    who can't act believe in themselves; and debtors who won't
    pay. It would be much truer to say that a man will certainly fail,
    because he believes in himself. Complete self-confidence is not
    merely a sin; complete self-confidence is a weakness.
    Believing utterly in one's self is a hysterical and superstitious belief
    like believing in Joanna Southcote: the man who has it has
    `Hanwell' written on his face as plain as it is written on that omnibus."

    -- G. K. Chesterton, _Orthodoxy_,
    Chapter 2, "The Maniac"

    ReplyDelete
  5. "If there are among my readers any young men or women who
    aspire to become leaders of thought in their generation, I
    hope they will avoid certain errors into which I fell in
    youth for want of good advice. When I wished to form an
    opinion upon a subject, I used to study it, weigh the
    arguments on different sides, and attempt to reach a
    balanced conclusion. I have since discovered that this
    is not the way to do things. A man of genius knows
    it all without the need of study; his opinions are
    pontifical and depend for their persuasiveness upon
    literary style rather than argument. It is necessary
    to be one-sided, since this facilitates the vehemence
    that is considered a proof of strength. It is essential
    to appeal to prejudices and passions of which men
    have begun to feel ashamed and to do this in the name
    of some new ineffable ethic. It is well to decry the
    slow and pettifogging minds which require evidence
    in order to reach conclusions. Above all, whatever is
    most ancient should be dished up as the very latest
    thing.

    There is no novelty in this recipe for genius; it
    was practised by Carlyle in the time of our grandfathers,
    and by Nietzsche in the time of our fathers, and it has
    been practised in our own time by D. H. Lawrence. Lawrence
    is considered by his disciples to have enunciated all
    sorts of new wisdom about the relations of men and women;
    in actual fact he has gone back to advocating the domination
    of the male which one associates with the cave dwellers.
    Woman exists, in his philosophy, only as something soft
    and fat to rest the hero when he returns from his labours.
    Civilised societies have been learning to see something more
    than this in women; Lawrence will have nothing of civilisation.
    He scours the world for what is ancient and dark and loves
    the traces of Aztec cruelty in Mexico. Young men, who had
    been learning to behave, naturally read him with delight and
    go round practising cave-man stuff so far as the usages of
    polite society will permit.

    ReplyDelete
  6. One of the most important elements of success in becoming
    a man of genius is to learn the art of denunciation. You
    must always denounce in such a way that your reader thinks
    that it is the other fellow who is being denounced and not
    himself; in that case he will be impressed by your noble
    scorn, whereas if he thinks that it is himself that you
    are denouncing, he will consider that you are guilty of
    ill-bred peevishness. Carlyle remarked: ``The population
    of England is twenty millions, mostly fools.'' Everybody
    who read this considered himself one of the exceptions,
    and therefore enjoyed the remark. You must not denounce
    well-defined classes, such as persons with more than a
    certain income, inhabitants of a certain area, or believers
    in some definite creed; for if you do this, some readers
    will know that your invective is directed against them.
    You must denounce persons whose emotions are atrophied,
    persons to whom only plodding study can reveal the truth,
    for we all know that these are other people, and we
    shall therefore view with sympathy your powerful diagnosis
    of the evils of the age.

    Ignore fact and reason, live entirely in the world of
    your own fantastic and myth-producing passions; do this
    whole-heartedly and with conviction, and you will become
    one of the prophets of your age."

    -- Bertrand Russell, "How to Become a Man of Genius",
    28 December 1932

    ReplyDelete
  7. http://bigthink.com/ideas/23988

    Interactive media and innovation guru Robert Tercek gave
    an excellent talk at the HPlus Summit at Harvard this summer. . .

    His presentation, titled “What Geeks Can Learn from Gurus,”
    lays out the problem with trying to convince a public that has
    already been inundated with years of poor imagery of techno-life.
    Having worked with Tony Robbins and Oprah Winfrey, Tercek
    offers a practical four step solution to the Singularity's
    branding problem:

    1. Make it Easy to Follow (Be Honest about Challenges)

    2. Establish Rapport (No Jargon, No Freaks, No Weirdness)

    3. Harness Emotional Energy (Appeal to Emotional Instinct, not Intellect)

    4. Inspire Action (Talk About Today, Not Just the Future)
    ---------------------

    Well, Tony Robbins and Oprah Winfrey should know,
    I guess.

    ReplyDelete