Sunday, November 15, 2009

Futurological Brickbats

There is nothing more pathetic than boys who strive to sound prophetic.

1 comment:

  1. > There is nothing more pathetic than boys who strive to sound prophetic.

    http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2009/08/16/the-tragicomic-exasperations-of-expertise/
    ---------------------------------
    The Dunning-Kruger effect is one of those cleanly stated
    insights that can at once make you feel relieved and hopeless.
    It is a cognitive bias which lends confidence to ignorance.
    Wikipedia compactly describes the effect as follows:

    “…people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate
    choices but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive
    ability to realize it.” They therefore suffer an illusory
    superiority, rating their own ability as above average.
    This leads to a perverse result where people with less
    competence will rate their ability more highly than people
    with relatively more competence."

    . . .


    It is the insight behind the proverb, fools rush in where
    angels fear to tread. It is the resignation behind the observation,
    how do you explain color to a blind man and the metaphor
    of the frog in the well. It is the paradox underlying Plato’s
    allegory of the cave. My favorite example though, is from
    Antoine de Saint-Exupery’s The Little Prince. If you have
    not read that pensive little parable about a little Prince
    traveling from planet to planet and learning the lessons of
    adulthood and maturity, do so today. In it is a curious character,
    the Rose, who lives securely within her own little bubble
    of self-assurance, defenseless and arrogant, convinced that
    her four little thorns are enough to protect her from
    the universe. The Prince, who loves the rose, is left
    feeling at once sad and powerless to express his thoughts. . .
    ---------------------------------


    http://blog.bumblebeelabs.com/the-ego-dilemma/
    ---------------------------------
    The ego dilemma is the belief, against reasonable evidence,
    that there is something unique contained in your ego that challenges
    previous historical experience. In short, the ego dilemma would
    be a perfectly reasonable assumption if you lived in a movie where
    you were the main character but a deeply tricky one in the real world.

    Other example ego dilemmas include believing you’re of significantly
    above average intelligence, setting aside your life so that you
    can “make it” as a famous actor/musician/sports star/writer, thinking
    you WILL get the girl with that desperately creepy romantic gesture
    or, if you’re coming here from Hacker News, assuming that your startup
    has a reasonable chance of success commensurate with the effort you’re
    putting into it.

    The truly frustrating thing about the ego dilemma is that it tells
    you nothing of any value. Recognizing that you’re caught in an ego
    dilemma doesn’t mean that you’re wrong. You could, after all, be
    the next Mark Zuckerberg. Someone has to be after all. But also
    likely is that you’re a clueless idiot who’s utterly convinced [by]
    your own fallacious arguments. We know this intellectually because
    we’ve all experienced the ego dilemma from the outside, you’re
    trying to convince someone that they’re just plain wrong but they
    keep on returning back to what makes them SPECIAL. And if you’re
    experienced it from the outside, it’s meant that someone’s experienced
    it from the outside at you.
    ---------------------------------


    A youthful blog with youthful worries:
    http://lesswrong.com/lw/ua/the_level_above_mine/

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