tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5956838.post5419901349962827001..comments2023-11-22T01:14:54.298-08:00Comments on amor mundi: More WrongDale Carricohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02811055279887722298noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5956838.post-62603761412584796242013-01-30T10:00:25.715-08:002013-01-30T10:00:25.715-08:00Cheers for the link, interesting reading.Cheers for the link, interesting reading.jollyspaniardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10999141103840765243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5956838.post-70801392431679504532013-01-29T16:42:16.757-08:002013-01-29T16:42:16.757-08:00> I wrote a nine room dungeons and dragons game...> I wrote a nine room dungeons and dragons game back in 81,<br />> where's my cult!<br /><br />http://lesswrong.com/user/Dmytry/overview/?count=20&after=t1_6c8z<br />[Dmytry Lavrov]<br />-----------------<br />"I don't like when someone picks up untestable hypotheses out<br />of scifi. That is a very bad habit. Especially for Bayesians."<br /><br />"The issue is that it is a doomsday cult if one is to expect<br />extreme outlier (on doom belief) who had never done anything<br />notable beyond being a popular blogger, to be the best person to<br />listen to. That is incredibly unlikely situation for a genuine risk.<br />Bonus cultism points for knowing Bayesian inference but not<br />applying it here. Regardless of how real is the AI risk. Regardless<br />of how truly qualified that one outlier may be. It is an<br />incredibly unlikely world-state where the AI risk would be<br />best coming from someone like that. No matter how fucked up<br />is the scientific review process, it is incredibly unlikely<br />that world's best AI talk is someone's first notable contribution."<br /><br />> Less Wrong has discussed the meme of "SIAI agrees on ideas that<br />> most people don't take seriously? They must be a cult!"<br /><br />"Awesome, it has discussed this particular 'meme', to prevalence of<br />viral transmission of which your words seem to imply it attributes its<br />identification as cult. Has it, however, discussed good Bayesian<br />reasoning and understood the impact of a statistical fact that even<br />when there is a genuine risk (if there is such risk), it is incredibly<br />unlikely that the person most worth listening to will be lacking<br />both academic credentials and any evidence of rounded knowledge,<br />and also be an extreme outlier on degree of belief? There's also<br />the NPD diagnostic criteria to consider [Whoa! Ouch!]. The probabilities<br />multiply here into an incredibly low probability of extreme on<br />many parameters relevant to cult identification, for a non-cult.<br />(For cults, they don't multiply up because there is common cause.)"<br /><br /><br />Well, you can fool all of the people some of the time,<br />and you can fool some of the people all of the time,<br />but, if nothing else, Google makes it harder these days<br />to fool all of the people all of the time.<br /><br />http://amormundi.blogspot.com/2007/10/superlative-summary.html<br />--------------<br />Utilitarian said...<br /><br />Yes, the improbable attribution of the conjunction of ultra-extreme<br />ability, altruism, and debiasing success when these are quite imperfectly<br />correlated is among [a guru's] most suspect claims.<br /><br /><br />;-><br />jimfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04975754342950063440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5956838.post-8572608714583409332013-01-29T16:37:37.562-08:002013-01-29T16:37:37.562-08:00I wrote a nine room dungeons and dragons game back...I wrote a nine room dungeons and dragons game back in 81, where's my cult!<br />jollyspaniardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10999141103840765243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5956838.post-53224493085522968422013-01-27T15:55:08.229-08:002013-01-27T15:55:08.229-08:00> No doubt a paradigm-shattering "metaethi...> No doubt a paradigm-shattering "metaethical" treatise riffing<br />> on I Am the Cheese is soon forthcoming.<br /><br />Thank God he hasn't attempted Tolkien. I don't think I'd<br />survive. ;-> (Though he did once, long ago, ask me to<br />translate something into Quenya.)jimfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04975754342950063440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5956838.post-52909501910018302632013-01-27T15:06:50.508-08:002013-01-27T15:06:50.508-08:00Sheesh, I hand-htmled my first web pages in 93 or ...Sheesh, I hand-htmled my first web pages in 93 or 94 and I'm an effete aesthete pomo relativistic luddite sheeple mehum.Dale Carricohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02811055279887722298noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5956838.post-30978804605867572412013-01-27T15:03:44.641-08:002013-01-27T15:03:44.641-08:00> I have a question. Has anyone actually seen a...> I have a question. Has anyone actually seen any coding<br />> Yudkowsky has done?<br /><br />He claimed once upon a time to have written (or started work<br />on) a text editor for an early (Mac 128K, OS 5 era) Macintosh,<br />using the CodeWarrior development environment, when he was<br />a wee tyke.<br /><br />He launched a SourceForge project for a<br />programming language he designed, that he called "Flare".<br /><br />I believe he claimed to have directly coded in HTML his<br />early Web articles -- either that, or he produced them<br />(or produced later versions) using an HTML editor he<br />wrote (in Python? He was big on Python once upon a time.)<br /><br />But no, AFAIK he's never produced substantive code --<br />certainly no code for an AI.<br /><br />If anybody knows better than that, we're all ears.jimfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04975754342950063440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5956838.post-13050332352919354872013-01-27T14:01:46.256-08:002013-01-27T14:01:46.256-08:00As I never tire of pointing out, futurology is a d...As I never tire of pointing out, futurology is a discourse -- it produces rhetoric for ideological and subcultural-signalling purposes not actual scientific or policy results. That's why a trained rhetorician is a reasonably good candidate to criticize futurologists, and also why rhetorical analyses provoke howls among futurologists demanding to be assessed only on the "technical merits" -- but always only on their idiosyncratic terms. So, of course, you're right -- the singularipope can't pass muster as an actual coder or scientist (none of the futurologists do, and even those very few who do wear real science or technician hats at least some times in their lives aren't doing their science when they shift to their futurological fulminating, as witness Kurzweil), but whatever his PR to the contrary, it seems to me that what is interesting, wrong, and substantially productive (in that counterproductive way if his) about his futurological practice has never actually been about any of that anyway.Dale Carricohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02811055279887722298noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5956838.post-28224440719218325002013-01-27T13:44:17.340-08:002013-01-27T13:44:17.340-08:00I have a question. Has anyone actually seen any co...I have a question. Has anyone actually seen any coding Yudkowsky has done?<br />He keeps talking about what an uber coder he is but I have not seen anything or talked to any one who has seen his work, or at least any high end "this guy is a genius" type stuff..<br /><br />Has he shown it to anyone over on LW?joehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02594646216557510485noreply@blogger.com