Trumpproval

Public Policy Polling has the diagnosis:

Trump is stuck at 46-47% in Arizona (and has a 46/52 approval rating) and is stuck at 48-49% in Iowa (and has a 48/48 approval rating). He appears to have very little room to grow among undecideds. These numbers suggest that the fate of the 2020 election really stands in the hands of the voters who don’t like Trump. Trump does not have enough people who like him to get reelected: the only way he does is if the voters who don’t like him refuse to get on the same page after the Democratic primary is over. Right now we see a lot of people saying they will vote for Biden but not Bernie or will vote for Bernie but not Biden. If those people get on the same page once the nominee is chosen, Trump will lose. If they don’t, it will be close.

This sort of analysis never quite takes on board the consequences of structural inequities (the anti-democratic operation of the electoral college and non-representative Senate, etc.), Republican cheating (gerrymandering, disenfranchisement, ballot tampering, voter intimidation, etc.) and foreign interference seeking to exacerbate unrest in an ill-educated and polarized US electorate and undermine the legitimacy of US government (not exactly a hard sell). My preferred ticket is Warren/Castro and I haven't given up on Warren's chances at all, by the way -- in historical terms Warren seems pretty well positioned both financially and in terms of likely delegate counts for a long haul during which what seem to me glaring weaknesses in the Bernie-Biden-Buttigieg boys will provide plenty of occasions for them to underperform and provide openings for a Warren campaign that seems to me mostly to be making all the right moves. I tend to think either of the current front-runners Biden or Bernie would make shitty presidents but will still eagerly vote for either of them over the dangerous evil bigot idiot Nazi Donald Trump and his death-cult base of deplorables, obviously.