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Sunday, January 12, 2014

Krugman on Reactionary Anti-Scientific Counter-Revolutionaries

The Anti-Scientific Revolution in Macroeconomics:
[S]omething I’ve been thinking about a lot lately [is] the remarkable extent to which powerful groups, including a fair number of economists, have rejected intellectual progress because it disturbs their ideological preconceptions. What brings this to mind is the debate over extended unemployment benefits, which I think provides a teachable moment... [I]f you follow right-wing talk... the Wall Street Journal and famous economists like Robert Barro... the notion that aid to the unemployed can create jobs dismissed as self-evidently absurd. You think that you can reduce unemployment by paying people not to work? Hahahaha! Quite aside from the fact that this ridicule is dead wrong, and has had a malign effect on policy, think about what it represents: it amounts to casually trashing one of the most important discoveries economists have ever made, one of my profession’s main claims to be useful to humanity... that economies can ever suffer from an inadequate level of “aggregate demand” ... [W]e had a scientific revolution in economics, one that dramatically increased our comprehension of the world and also gave us crucial practical guidance about what to do in the face of depressions. The broad outlines of the theory devised during that revolution have held up extremely well in the face of experience, while those rejecting the theory because it doesn’t correspond to their notion of common sense have been wrong every step of the way. Yet a large part of both the political establishment and the economics establishment rejects the whole thing out of hand, because they don’t like the conclusions.
Of course, the obvious and immediate anti-science parallel is the right's denial of the consensus of relevant climate scientists about the reality of catastrophic anthropogenic climate change and resource descent and the practical measures available for their collective redress. And reactionary efforts to refuse the teaching of evolutionary biology or apparently even the basics of female human reproductive biology offer up yet another conspicuous anti-scientific pillar of contemporary conservatism. And there is a ramifying host of comparable refusals of an accountability to reproducible results central to harm-reduction models shaping policy on gun safety, capital punishment, racial profiling, nonviolent recreational drug use, the yields as against the input-intensivity of industrial petro-chemical monoculture, public health impacts of urban food deserts, high-speed rail versus interstate highways and air traffic, investment in pre-K and after-school programs, nutritional assistance, preventative care, socializing healthcare provision to lower costs, and on and on and on and on.

As Krugman indicates, it is usually the parochial interests of particular elite-incumbent stakeholders to which conservative political formation are beholden for patronage (the petroleum industry, the gun lobby, multinational agribusiness, patriarchal evangelical christianists, scared resentful white racists whose irrational passions can be mobilized to provide voting majorities for policies harmful to majorities, and so on) that invest in programs of systematic deception about consequences and suppression of consensus science in order to achieve demonstrable benefits for themselves at whatever costs to majorities and in the longer term.

What I would add to this myself is just a cautionary note. There is a dangerous allure in overgeneralizing Krugman's point that Republicans are indulging in an "ideological" rejection of "progress." Yesterday on the Melissa Harris-Perry Show I heard a scholar make the observation, in connection to climate science denialism across the Republican Party, that it is the right wing in this country which is really "postmodern." This is a claim I have heard over and over again for fifteen years or so -- and part of what is striking about it is that however often it is trotted out, the maker of the claim usually whips it out like a rabbit in a bikini from a hat, and everybody gasps around the table as though it were unheard of. I daresay it is the evergreen thrill of the "gotcha!" that accounts for the shimmer of novelty that inevitably attends the repetition of this cliched observation: left-wing scholars making pragmatic, post-structuralist, and social constructionist claims were castigated by reactionaries as nihilists and relativists for so long, there is a certain sweet payback in the accusation that it is the Mayberry Machiavellis who declare themselves ideological makers of reality rather than beholden to the "fact-based reality" of liberal policy wonks who are the real postmodernists!

Such denigrations of "postmodernism," whether from otherwise dependable liberals or from belligerent conservatives, tend to take the form of an affirmation of science as a politically neutral or even anti-political space. It seems to me quite crucial to recognize that the "fact-based reality" on which liberal policy wonks depend who are devoted to harm-reduction models and equitable cost-benefit analysis and sustainable outcomes is made up of warranted scientific facts that arise out of specific and contingent and actually vulnerable historical and political processes. The problem we confront in the willful macroeconomic illiteracy of austerians -- or in the convenient denial of climate science by petrochemical CEOs who otherwise trust the consensus of, say, relevant medical researchers -- is not the problem of a politicization of science, but in an incompetent, incoherent, bad politicization of a science that depends for its legibility and force on a more competent, coherent, better politicization. To advocate public regulation and investment in the service of science literacy education, accountable results, standards of publication, proper attribution of credit, safety regulation, fair use, sustainable implementation is absolutely to "politicize" science. Ideology does not trump science, so much as that reproducible research, the costs risks and benefits of which are equitably distributed to the diversity of its stakeholders (without which proviso one can never properly speak of scientific or technological progress, for progress, too, is an inedicably political concept), depends on the support of its own ideology.

I agree with Krugman about the anti-scientific ideology of reactionaries. But this ideology is embedded within a reactionary anti-intellectualism on which the deceptions and frauds of incumbent elites invariably ultimately depend. (And, yes, Virginia even a menacingly relativistic pragmatist or poststructuralist can make ready coherent recourse to the notions of deception and fraud and progress even without a faith in just-so correspondence accounts of truth and other theological fancies.) It seems to me vitally important to insist that any comforting denial of the interminable construction of what we take to be facts of a matter or of the indispensably political character of progressive scientific and policy-making processes is of a piece with anti-intellectualism more generally, and as a habit of mind eventually conduces to reactionary ends, even when it is offered up in opportunistic, ostensible support of fact-based scientifically-accountable policy outcomes. And, like it or not, it is to scholars derided, rightly or not, as "postmodernists" that we owe the most forceful and influential formulations of these indispensable insights. If you would decry anti-intellectualism it would be best not to indulge in it while making your case.

6 comments:

jimf said...

> Of course, the obvious and immediate anti-science parallel
> is the right's denial of the consensus of relevant climate scientists
> about the reality of catastrophic anthropogenic climate change
> and resource descent and the practical measures available for
> their collective redress. And reactionary efforts to refuse the
> teaching of evolutionary biology or apparently even the basics of
> female human reproductive biology offer up yet another conspicuous
> anti-scientific pillar of contemporary conservatism. And there
> is a ramifying host of comparable refusals of an accountability
> to reproducible results central to harm-reduction models shaping
> policy on gun safety, capital punishment, racial profiling,
> nonviolent recreational drug use, the yields as against the
> input-intensivity of industrial petro-chemical monoculture,
> public health impacts of urban food deserts, high-speed rail
> versus interstate highways and air traffic, investment in pre-K
> and after-school programs, nutritional assistance, preventative care,
> socializing healthcare provision to lower costs, and on and on and on and on.

You know, "climate-change denialism" isn't **quite** parallel
to the (patently religiously-based) denial of evolution.

The climate-change question is complex, statistical, and subject
to differing opinions even among experts. And it's far too complex
a field for a layman to come to a direct independent judgment on
the matter.

In a way, it's very similar to the "nutrition wars" that wage on
the Web and elsewhere. To maximize health and resistance to degenerative
disease, should we follow a low-fat, high-carb diet (as recommended
by, say, Dean Ornish, the American Heart Association, and most mainstream
doctors), or should we be following a high-fat, low-carb diet (as once
recommended by Robert Atkins, or more recently by Gary Taubes and
many "low carb" bloggers)? Should we be raw-food vegan, vegan, vegetarian,
or should we be eating "grass-fed beef" as per Dave Asprey's "bulletproof"
diet advice? Should we believe Lierre Keith that veganism and strict vegetarianism
are both unhealthy and bad for the planet? All these people are clearly smart,
and many offer plausible arguments. Many of the blogs (on both ends of
the spectrum) will quote scientific papers (or at least abstracts thereof)
until your eyes glaze over, and will also offer analyses purporting
either to support or debunk them. They'll quote both statistical arguments
and biochemistry at you.

For a layman (or at least for **this** layman), guessing who to (more or
less) believe depends less on my own expertise in statistics or biochemistry
(of which I have essentially none!) and more on a very general sense of
who seems to be more trustworthy. Some of these people (especially the
blow-hard "personal trainer" and "life coach" types) come across as
self-promoters and salesfolks, and that (for me, at least) diminishes their credibility.
Some of the self-styled clinicians are chiropractors, acupuncturists,
and NDs (Naturopathic Doctors) and that too diminishes their credibility
for me. Gary Taubes is a science journalist, not a clinician. On the
other hand, I've seen claims that the vast majority of mainstream
medical doctors are unable to evaluate the credibility of a scientific
paper or judge the statistical validity of its conclusions. Some of the
bloggers who are (or at least claim to be) medical doctors also claim
to have extensive clinical experience **and** statistical sophistication
enough to read and evaluate cutting-edge scientific papers. But guess
what? One of the latter (one Michael R. Eades), who seems to have his
act together about nutrition and whom I was inclined to trust, threw
me for a loop when he casually mentioned that he's a climate-change
skeptic!

jimf said...

Look, I'm a "believer" in modern science. I certainly believe in the
broad outlines of Darwinian evolution (as explained at the high-school
level or on, say, P. Z. Myers' blog). I also "believe" in Special and
General Relativity and Quantum Mechanics, even though the furthest
I got in Relativity theory was a college physics course deriving E=mc2
from a Taylor series expansion of the formula for kinetic energy with
the relativistic version of velocity plugged in (the version involving
the square root of c2 - v2) and setting velocity to zero, to find
out the (relativistic) energy at rest. I have no "serious" grasp of
General Relativity (I don't know anything about Riemannian geometries
or what a "tensor" is) or about quantum mechanics. I "believe" in
Higgs bosons (though I can't remember the difference between bosons
and fermions offhand) because the folks running the LHC say they've
found such things. I know nothing about the significance of the Higgs
boson beyond what a science journalist writing in the New York Times
might say about it (that it's the quantized manifestation of a "field" --
whatever that is -- that gives mass to the other subatomic particles
in the Standard Model). I have **no independent basis** for believing
or disbelieving anything coming out of modern physics. On the other
hand, if somebody (on the Web, say) claimed to have disproven
Einstein's Theor(ies) of Relativity, I would be strongly inclined to
suspect the writer of crackpottery, and I would look for other signs
of such crackpottery. I'd use my street intuitions about human
psychology to try to sniff out additional indications of the person
in question being a nutcase of one or another standard variety.
But that's a very **indirect** basis on which to assign credibility
(and has little to do with physics).

Similarly, most people (politicians and businesspeople a fortiori) are
assigning belief to the perils of climate change based on broad models
of how they think the socio-political world works. The Left is
inclined to suspect the short-sighted power- and money-grabs of
CEOs and heads of state. The Right is inclined to suspect climate-change
Cassandras of using "science" as an excuse to grab power for
their side (regulate business, tax the rich, etc.) I, too, base
my "belief" on these sorts of broader narratives (and in the absence
of any independent expertise, I'm more inclined to believe the
narratives of the Left).

Yes, we have analogous situations from the past -- e.g., the tobacco industry
trying for decades to muddy scientific findings about how dangerous
cigarettes are that are broadly (but still not unanimously!) accepted
today.

But things aren't exactly cut and dried.

jimf said...

Right-inclined folks (and worshippers of can-do CEOs and
tech entrepreneurs) no doubt also see climate-change Cassandras
as being "entranced by the false vision of doom ahead".

https://www.fightaging.org/archives/2014/01/arguing-a-limit-on-life-span.php
--------------------
Fight Aging!
13 Jan 2014
Arguing a Limit on Life Span
Posted by Reason

. . .

Pessimism abounds in this age of ours that is characterized by
wealth, plenty, and rapid, accelerating progress in technology
and medicine. There is nothing new about that, of course.
People have long been entranced by the false vision of doom ahead.
====

jimf said...

> Yes, we have analogous situations from the past -- e.g., the tobacco industry
> trying for decades to muddy scientific findings about how dangerous
> cigarettes are that are broadly (but still not unanimously!) accepted
> today.

You know, back in 1975 or thereabouts I was working as a lab technician
for a large, well-known corporation (which I will not name ;-> ) performing
quality-assurance assays on exotic biochemicals used in the company's
medical products. The guy who ran the lab at the time (a Ph.D. chemist,
for crying out loud, so you'd think he would have known better) was
a vociferous tobacco-harm denialist. He thought the surgeon General's
warning was just a bunch of stuff'n'nonsense. Now, the guy was, I'd
guess, also a staunch Republican. He was a big guy -- something like
the stereotype of a Red State town sheriff -- he came from somewhere
in the South or Southwest -- Oklahoma, maybe. Or maybe Virginia, I don't
know. Coincidence?

The scientific evidence, such as it ever was, for the harmfulness of
smoking tobacco, was indirect and **statistical**. It wasn't a deterministic,
push-pull thing like shorting out a battery and always getting a spark
or a hot wire. Some folks have trouble getting their heads around
this kind of evidence. There are always counterexamples to be trotted out.
I myself have an aunt in her 90s who smokes (and has always smoked) like
a chimney. It's starting to catch up with her -- she has COPD -- but
she's never fallen prey to lung cancer. Similarly, Jeanne Calment,
the French lady who allegedly lived to be 122, is shown in a famous
photo (at the age of 120+) smoking a cigarette. But **on average**,
it seems, you can't count on getting away with it like the statistical
outliers. Ayn Rand similarly believed that the tobacco warnings were
stuff'n'nonsense perpetrated by the nanny state (and how many tobacco
CEOs would have liked to believe **her**?) But she succumbed to
lung cancer. Even so, it isn't possible to say definitively that
she got lung cancer **because** she smoked (statistical evidence just
doesn't work that way). But probably. (And some folks get lung cancer
who never smoked. Like the late Christopher Reeve's late wife.)

Dale Carrico said...

Warranted consensus scientific truth is essentially what is taken to be true enough to be published in everyday textbooks right now. Yes, that will change. Yes, some things taken to be true will be replaced by different things. Yes, actual practicing scientists are warranted in their research to take as warranted things that are not yet taken up by a sufficient consensus to make it into the textbooks. In the post I analogized "the convenient denial of climate science by petrochemical CEOs who otherwise trust the consensus of, say, relevant medical researchers." What I hoped this would make clear is that the anti-scientific counter-revolutionaries of the right are screwing around with the norms on which political procedures depend to translate the state of consensus scientific knowledge into policymaking to which representatives must be accountable. That trained scientists within these fields are still working through evolutionary, atmospheric, ecosystemic, macroeconomic, therapeutic puzzles is not to justify denial by nonexpert everyday citizens of the questions on which these experts share strong conviction. That human activity is causing and can still be made to ameliorate catastrophic climate change actually isn't debated among the relevant scientists in a way that justifies hesitation (let alone ridicule) on the part of citizens or their accountable representatives. You don't have to be a scientific expert capable of contributing to a field in order to stand in a more or less reasonable relation to the knowledge claims arising from that field -- especially to the extent that those knowledge claims figure in the cause or amelioration of public problems of shared concern. I guess I do think these issues are all pretty cut and dried as you say (so I disagree with you a bit on that, I think you are being overcharitable to charlatans), but I think it is only the prior recognition that politics is political, and that anti-science is less about apostasy about revealed truths (and I think that most of your examples are about drawing our attention to this, so I agree with you on the substance) as about political dysfunction brought about by degenerating norms and practices of active fraud, political through and through.

jimf said...

You mightn't have thought this was controversial, in
21st-century America:

http://www.thinkatheist.com/profiles/blog/show?id=1982180%3ABlogPost%3A44493
------------------
Bill Nye, the harmless children's edu-tainer known as
"The Science Guy," managed to offend a select group of
adults in Waco, Texas at a presentation, when he suggested
that the moon does not emit light, but instead reflects
the light of the sun.

As even most elementary-school graduates know, the moon reflects
the light of the sun but produces no light of its own.

But don't tell that to the good people of Waco, who were
"visibly angered by what some perceived as irreverence,"
according to the Waco Tribune.

Nye was in town to participate in McLennan Community College's
Distinguished Lecture Series. He gave two lectures on such unfunny
and adult topics as global warming, Mars exploration, and energy
consumption.

But nothing got people as riled as when he brought up Genesis 1:16,
which reads: "God made two great lights -- the greater light
to govern the day and the lesser light to govern the night.
He also made the stars."

The lesser light, he pointed out, is not a light at all,
but only a reflector.

At this point, several people in the audience stormed out in fury.
One woman yelled "We believe in God!" and left with three children,
thus ensuring that people across America would read about the
incident and conclude that Waco is as nutty as they'd always suspected.

This story originally appeared in the Waco Tribune, but the newspaper
has mysteriously pulled its story from the online version,
presumably to avoid further embarrassment.
===

Of course, there's a **bit** more going on here than "Think Atheist"
is letting on.

I suspect that Nye (who must've known that he was being something
of an agent provocateur) wouldn't have gotten the same reaction
from the good folks of Wac[k]o (there, that's my bias laid on the
table ;-> ) if he hadn't trotted out the passage from the Bible
in such a way that he seemed to be denigrating the "truth" of
the Holy Book. I suspect that in a purely secular context (a documentary
from NASA about the Apollo missions to the moon, say), even
the people of Waco, TX wouldn't argue over the notion that the
moon receives (and reflects) light from the sun.

And yes, people are perfectly capable of compartmentalizing their
thinking in this way. George Orwell called it "Doublethink".
(Under certain circumstances, 2+2=4, and under other circumstances,
2+2=5, even if you're an engineer.)