Generic Ballots May Underestimate Democrats… [L]ocal polls seem to point toward a House vote that would be about evenly divided.
Both the Real Clear Politics Congressional Generic average and the new Gallup track show similar national trend lines -- Dems gaining ground, GOP dropping…. The underlining favorability of the Republican Party is still far below that of the Dems and Obama. This election has never been like 1994 where at this point there had been both a fall of the Dems and a rise in the GOP. The memory of the disasterous GOP reign in the last decade is still too fresh, their leaders still to[o] unreformed, their candidates far too wacky, and their ideas still to[o]reckless for the current GOP to have fully taken advantage of the Democratic underpeformance this past cycle.
[W]hatever their flaws, Democrats are closing strong. And while the GOP couldn't stop releasing internal poll numbers all spring and summer (with nary a Democratic response), suddenly the roles are reversed -- it's the Democrats who are dumping scads of great-looking internal polling, while Republicans have gone suspiciously silent…. [T]he GOP will make significant gains this November.... But if we hold the House and Senate, at the cost of a few dozen Blue Dogs, it won't just be a victory for us, but it'll sunder the GOP. They expect to win both chambers. If we stop them, the simmering battle between the teabaggers and GOP establishment will be epic. So GOTV like mad. The numbers are trending in our direction. We just have to close the deal.